Over the weekend, I watched Arkan’s Legacy, a documentary about Serbian warlord Željko Ražnatović — a man who became so powerful that he allegedly controlled the Serbian government.

Some say that he became too powerful and it’s why he was assassinated. But that’s beside the point.

The Point

The unsettling reality is that America in the not-too-distant future is going to have a lot in common with partial-collapse societies of Eastern Europe and Latin America where gangs have more power and influence than the government; where politicians pass the laws but gangs enforce the rules.

This is the Gray Zone America you should be preparing for — not quite collapsed, but not quite standing.

This is my takeaway from Arkan’s Legacy.

The documentary features Serbian hooligans (soccer fans) confessing how their government permits them to dominate the black market and engage in criminal behavior as long as they serve the state.

Says one gang leader:

“Fan groups [hooligans] are the most organized and the most dangerous… [S]upporters are protected by the State, and in return, fans offer the State help with keeping order during demonstrations or political rallies. But we do it in civilian clothing so that nobody knows we are there. Nobody knows who is a “fan” and who is not… It’s the surest way to be covered for all the bad things you do.”

In separate interview, another gang leader describes it more bluntly:

“We will not hesitate to go out into the streets to demonstrate and support the government. The State controls us. It controls all the fans, and we are all connected… If the State has a problem, the fans run to help and vice versa. The collusion is total… [W]e support the government and the State lets us do what we want. It’s also like that in the courts. If we have a problem with the [courts], the State will support us and our sentences will be lightened.”

Social intimidation and political violence are valuable tools that don’t have to be directly connected to a political party. In many low intensity conflicts, political parties wield their own militant wings but attempt to maintain some plausible deniability.

Sinn Fein and the IRA. The Baath Party and Naqshabandi (Iraq). The Sadrist Party and Jaysh al-Mahdi (also Iraq). ISCI and the Badr Corps (also Iraq).

The 2016 and 2020 election seasons gave us a small taste of political street gangs. Because this "local muscle” is powerful, we’re probably going to see a lot more of it.

At the extreme end of the spectrum, like Belgrade and other Serbian cities experience, collusion between the political and criminal classes means that you can never be safe as a dissident. Political parties can use violence freely by ordering it and then protecting those who carry it out.

I have three general takeaways:

First, herein lies my problem with the Bugout Bag Industrial Complex:

Your bugout bags, fire starters, and lensatic compasses don’t solve this problem. There is no paracord bracelet on earth, nor stack of freeze dried food that can turn back the tide of government-gang collusion.

Playing defense, bugging in, and praying to God that no one bothers you is a losing strategy.

Second, I cannot possibly stress strongly enough the importance of controlling your own local politics.

The “power politics” of the Cultural Revolution is no longer a Chicago or Seattle problem. Political decay is creeping into suburban and rural areas.

The armies of enraged parents attending meetings, building networks, taking over school boards, and winning local political seats are doing the heaviest lifting.

The political, social, and economic power you build at the local level prevents the other guy from doing this to you.

Third, there is no defensive strategy that wins.

You have to build political, social, and economic power. You have to win seats at the local level. You have to agitate, community organize, and build a local social movement. And you have to either find wealthy donors or run businesses that employ your tribe and turn a profit so you can fund these initiatives.

If you want to map our your local political, social, and economic power players, do an Area Study.

I document how to do this in my latest book, The Area Intelligence Handbook.

In fact, this book is a blueprint on how to do an Area Study and how to find the information you need to solve the growing criminal class problem.

The Area Intelligence Handbook will be published on Tuesday, 25 April. You can sign up for updates about the release here: https://forwardobserver.com/book/

Until next time, be well and stay out front.

Always Out Front,

Mike Shelby

P.S. - In the meantime, I encourage you to watch Arkan’s Legacy. It drives home the point that we need to be proactive in how we prepare and how we prevent our communities from being run by the state-backed mob.